Tomorrow is Halloween, and as many as 41 million trick or treaters may be out and about.
This figure is from the U.S. Census Bureau, and we're not convinced that they really know. We suspect that they are just fobbing us off with the number of children in the country -- not a good way to determine how much candy you need to buy.
At the very least, you'd need to know the number of kids in your neighborhood, or trick or treating area. Or you can start with the number of parents in your neighborhood, and multiply that number by 66.66% -- the percentage of parents who intend to allow their kids to trick or treat. Without knowing the numbers of children per parent and the relationship of parental strictness to size of family, this number doesn't really help either. Recent reports that the percentage of parents allowing trick or treating varies by ethnic background (European American families are up to 73% approval while only 56% of Hispanic parents allow it) further complicates the math, unless you already know these demographics for your neighborhood.
83% of kids say they plan to trick or treat -- far more than you'd guess based on parental approval rates. We're not sure what to make of this.
What's more, researchers have found that parents are most likely to snitch chocolate from trick or treat bags, and also that kids trick or treat more heavily in affluent neighborhoods because it's thought that they give out "the good stuff" (that is, chocolate). In fact, 68% of kids say chocolate is their favorite, so if you distribute chocolate at Halloween and want to match your supply to likely demand, you may need to adjust upward.
There are other ways to plan. For example, the average expenditure for Halloween among Americans is just about $60.00. Unfortunately, we're not told what percentage of this is for trick or treat candy and what percentage goes toward pumpkins, costumes, or recordings of "Monster Mash." Keeping up with the Joneses may not be any easier mathematically than trying to meet demand.
On the other hand, there is also concern about flu this year, and many people may choose to keep their children home once they start thinking about all the little ghosts and goblins pawing through your candy bowl to make up their minds what to choose.
Between the mathematical uncertainties and the flu, it's hard to judge.
We'll have recipes next week for using up leftover chocolate.
Happy Hallowe'en!
